The recency effect in Elo ratings

One of the defining characteristics of Elo ratings is their emphasis on recent performance. To illustrate this, I simulated the performance of two teams that started the season with 1400 ratings. Over seven games, one team wins 5 contests and loses twice. I then created the 21 possible orderings of these wins and losses for … Continue reading

Assessing Elo Rating systems for NFL teams and Chess masters

Competitor Ratings Head to head matches characterize many sports such as football and chess. The pattern of wins and losses indicate the relative strengths of the competitors. This should also indicate how a team will do when facing other opponents in the future. One frequently used rating method is the Elo rating system pioneered by Arpad … Continue reading